The betting market did not reprice this game when Texas lost Colin Simmons and his backup. It repriced the total instead - and that tells you what it actually believes about Saturday night. The numbers: on Oct. 19, before the Simmons report, FanDuel had Texas -3.5 with a total of 52.5. As of Thursday morning Oct. 22, Texas is still -3.5 - six of eight books on the same number - while the total has climbed to 54.5. The side has not moved. The total is up two full points. (FanDuel via VegasInsider, pulled Thursday morning.) What that means: if the market thought the injury made Ole Miss more likely to win, the side moves. It did not. It decided more points get scored instead. The public is heavily on Ole Miss - DraftKings had 76% of tickets on the Rebels Thursday - and the number still held. Second segment: Terez Davis and Brycen Sanders are both questionable, and both are offensive linemen. Four Ole Miss linemen have started all six games and Connor Howes the last five. That continuity is why this offense has allowed five sacks in six games - 0.83 a game, first in the SEC and 10th nationally. The honest counterweight: Patrick Kutas already slid to center mid-game against Missouri without the offense noticing. But covering one spot for a half is not the same as starting two new linemen in Austin. Who worries you more, Davis or Sanders? Comments. Locked On Ole Miss Hits - quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy. #OleMiss #HottyToddy #TrinidadChambliss #PeteGolding #TexasFootball #SECFootball
The betting market did not reprice this game when Texas lost Colin Simmons and his backup. It repriced the total instead - and that tells you what it actually believes about Saturday night.
The numbers: on Oct. 19, before the Simmons report, FanDuel had Texas -3.5 with a total of 52.5. As of Thursday morning Oct. 22, Texas is still -3.5 - six of eight books on the same number - while the total has climbed to 54.5. The side has not moved. The total is up two full points. (FanDuel via VegasInsider, pulled Thursday morning.)
What that means: if the market thought the injury made Ole Miss more likely to win, the side moves. It did not. It decided more points get scored instead. The public is heavily on Ole Miss - DraftKings had 76% of tickets on the Rebels Thursday - and the number still held.
Second segment: Terez Davis and Brycen Sanders are both questionable, and both are offensive linemen. Four Ole Miss linemen have started all six games and Connor Howes the last five. That continuity is why this offense has allowed five sacks in six games - 0.83 a game, first in the SEC and 10th nationally.
The honest counterweight: Patrick Kutas already slid to center mid-game against Missouri without the offense noticing. But covering one spot for a half is not the same as starting two new linemen in Austin.
Who worries you more, Davis or Sanders? Comments.
Locked On Ole Miss Hits - quick takes on the Rebels every weekday. Subscribe and hit the bell. Hotty Toddy.
#OleMiss #HottyToddy #TrinidadChambliss #PeteGolding #TexasFootball #SECFootball